Base Metals Price Outlook March 9 2009

Base Metals
It was a good week for copper till Thursday when it fell amidst caution expressed by investors a day ahead of the US employment data. However, Copper futures prices recorded gains on Friday as the LME warehouse copper inventories continued to drawdown and Comex copper stocks decreased. The weakness in US currency against its key counterparts also added firmness to the red metals price. China is the world’s largest consumer and producer of most base metals. Copper gained on expectation of recovery in demand from China. COMEX copper most-active May expiry copper futures contract rose 3.55 cents to settle at $ 1.6890 a pound on Friday. Copper rose Wednesday to its highest level in more than three months as a week of sliding inventories of the metal and a rise in canceled warrants — material earmarked for delivery — had suggested demand could improve, particularly in China.

Copper price may stage some more recovery if LME warehouse copper inventories continue to drawdown. Though, recovery is unlikely to sustain for long owing to poor health of global economy and prevailing copper markets surplus.

Vedanta Resources Plc Chairman Anil Agarwal said he expects recession in the metal industry to continue this year. Aluminum continues to be a casuality of depression ropped to a seven-year low today as the global recession cut demand for vehicles and airplanes. Transportation is the biggest use of the lightweight metal, according to Citigroup Inc. China is expected to announce another bailout package worth $585-billion to aid its slowing economy. The aid is likely to increase investment in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, according to reports. Towards weekend Aluminium gained marginally in India largest commodity bourse, MCX. Copper might fall this week on speculation that the worsening sentiment in the global economies could reduce demand for industrial metals.